Saturday, June 30, 2007

Overview for Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea and Hong Kong

Malaysia
MALAYSIA managed to arrest currency woes with capital controls when the baht, rupiah and won keeled over. Using public funds, it bailed out debt-ridden banks and conglomerates. but opportunity for reform was lost until Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi took over in 2003. Even so, results have been mixed, with the government reluctant to take hard decisions. For example, the delay in drafting in a foreign partner for national carmaker Proton (above) deepened the company's problems. Malaysia's current growth rate of about 6 per cent is nowhere near the more than 8 per cent annualised rate it enjoyed for a decade before slipping into its worst ever recession in 1998 when the economy shrank by 7.5 per cent.

Thailand
THAILAND today has confidence springing from some US$65 billion in foreign currency reserves, a marked contrast to signing up for an emergency IMF loan of US$17 billion during the crisis. The turnaround is apparent in Bangkok, where hundreds of half-constructed skyscrapers were abandoned when the crisis erupted. Today, it has an elevated skytrain, a subway, a new airport (above) and dozens of glitzy malls. But a rise in the baht and political uncertainty caused by last September's military coup have taken a toll. Targeted economic growth rate for this year has been recently revised from 4.4 per cent to 4.5 per cent but is still a far cry from the annualised growth rate of 9 per cent before the crisis.

Indonesia
INDONESIA's economy continues to struggle, weighed down by pervasive corruption and a poor legal system which deter foreign investors. Billions in investment in infrastructure are needed for the economy to grow by more than 7 per cent. Only at this rate of growth can enough jobs be created to put a dent in unemployment of around 12.5 per cent. Economic growth has been ticking along at about 5.5 per cent the last two years, after contracting 13.5 per cent in 1998. Last October Indonesia paid the last instalment of its IMF dues of US$50 billion.

South Korea
SOUTH KOREA, which resorted to a 'humiliating' US$58 billion IMF bailout, has bounced back strongly after it undertook reforms. Seoul made good use of the IMF funds to clean up banks' balance sheets and reform the chaebols. After contracting 7 per cent in 1998, the economy jumped 9.5 per cent in 1999. By August 2001, the country had repaid the IMF.

Hong Kong
HONG KONG: The crash of the Thai baht on July 2, 1997, came just 24 hours after Hong Kong returned to Chinese Communist Party rule. In October that year, billions were wiped off the city's stock market as it fell by nearly a quarter, as lending rates were raised to 300 per cent to fend off speculative attacks on the Hong Kong dollar. Today, assisted in large part by mainland policies that make it easier for cross-border flow of funds and businesses, the territory is back on track, having grown by over 7.5 per cent annually in each of the past three years. It is a long haul from 1998, when GDP contracted 5.1 per cent.

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